Geopolitical Actors
Current stance, influence weight, and probability assessments for key stakeholders
The US seeks to de-escalate regional tensions and secure freedom of navigation while preventing Iran from achieving regional hegemony.
Iran's demand for control of the Strait of Hormuz and a Lebanon truce during direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad has been met with a risky US naval action in the Strait.
Iran aims to solidify its regional influence, secure control or significant leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and achieve a favorable resolution for its proxy networks.
Iran's demand for control of the Strait of Hormuz and a Lebanon truce during direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad has been met with a risky US naval action in the Strait.
Israel seeks to neutralize threats from Hezbollah in Lebanon and maintain its security interests, potentially through direct negotiations or continued military pressure.
Iran's demand for control of the Strait of Hormuz and a Lebanon truce during direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad has been met with a risky US naval action in the Strait.
China aims to promote regional stability to secure energy supplies and protect its economic interests, advocating for diplomatic solutions.
Iran's demand for control of the Strait of Hormuz and a Lebanon truce during direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad has been met with a risky US naval action in the Strait.
Pakistan seeks to facilitate diplomatic dialogue between the US and Iran, enhancing its regional standing as a neutral mediator.
Iran's demand for control of the Strait of Hormuz and a Lebanon truce during direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad has been met with a risky US naval action in the Strait.
Restores nuclear deal framework; prioritises diplomatic track over sanctions escalation.
E3 foreign ministers issued joint statement calling for 'immediate resumption of JCPOA framework talks'.