About Hormuz Dash
Methodology, architecture, and signal sources
Hormuz Dash is an OSINT research project. All probability assessments are generated by a large language model grounded in live news signals. This is not a substitute for professional intelligence analysis and should not be used for operational decision-making.
A server-side cron job fires every 10 minutes, runs the full analysis pipeline, and persists the snapshot to the database — instantly reflected across all connected clients.
Before each cycle, the engine pulls from 7 live feeds — BBC Middle East, Guardian ME, Al Jazeera, NYT World, and 3 targeted Google News queries (Iran/Hormuz/ceasefire, Iran/US nuclear, Araghchi/Witkoff/Islamabad). Articles are keyword-scored; the top 15 are injected into the LLM prompt as grounding context. The highest-scoring article becomes the cycle's trigger signal.
The LLM receives the previous snapshot and live headlines, then produces structured JSON: ceasefire/conflict probabilities, per-actor assessments, watchpoint tension levels, a trigger event summary, and a full intelligence briefing.
Probabilities are weighted by actor influence (USA 30%, Iran 28%, Israel 18%, China 12%, Pakistan 7%). Positive = continued ceasefire/resolution. Negative = escalation/conflict. All values sum to 100% per actor and for the master row. Confidence scores reflect the LLM's self-assessed certainty.
Every snapshot is stored. The Archive section provides a full timeline of the last 30 updates — browse how probabilities evolved and review past briefings with source attribution.
| Feed | Status | Articles | Relevant | Top Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BBC Middle East Historic Vance-Ghalibaf talks must bridge deep distrust | 34 | 34 | 26.4 | |
Guardian Middle East US and Iran hold talks in Islamabad as Pakistan seeks to broker peace deal | 20 | 20 | 47.3 | |
Al Jazeera Israeli settlers kill Palestinian during raid on occupied West Bank village | 25 | 17 | 2.2 | |
NYT World Iran War Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Hold Historic High-Level Peace Talks | 60 | 34 | 18.0 | |
Google News — Iran Hormuz Ceasefire Live Updates: Vance participates in high-stakes talks with Iran as U.S. Navy ships cross the Strait of Hormuz - CBS News | 100 | 100 | 29.9 | |
Google News — Iran US Nuclear Talks U.S.-Iran peace talks underway in Islamabad after weeks of frantic diplomacy - Oregon Public Broadcasting - OPB | 100 | 99 | 23.4 | |
Google News — Araghchi Witkoff Islamabad Direct talks taking place in Islamabad as U.S. and Iran seek path to end war - The Washington Post | 100 | 100 | 27.0 |
| Actor | Entity | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| USA | US State Department / White House | 30% |
| Iran | IRGC / Supreme Leader Office | 28% |
| Israel | IDF / Mossad / Prime Minister's Office | 18% |
| China | MFA / PLA Strategic Support | 12% |
| Pakistan | ISI / Foreign Ministry | 7% |
| EU Mediators | European External Action Service | 5% |